The Art of Looking Ahead

Why most small businesses don't do it, and how to start

Picture a business owner who’s busy, successful even, but has no idea what next year looks like. It turns out this is more common than you’d think: an OECD study on financial literacy found that a surprising number of small business owners struggle with exactly this.

My first reaction was: surely everyone plans for the future? But then I thought about it more carefully. Most small business owners come from a trade, a passion, or a technical background, not finance or strategy. They probably know where they want to take their business, but knowing what you need to prepare for from a finance and strategy point of view is often a very different thing.

Ignoring these things leads to stress, missed opportunities, and decisions made in panic rather than from a plan. In some cases, it's the difference between a business that grows and one that gradually fades away.

It’s Simpler Than It Sounds

Long-term planning can sound heavy, like consultants, thick documents and endless meetings. But it often comes down to just three questions: Where do you want to be in three years? What needs to happen to get there? And what might get in the way?

Most people start businesses because they’re great at something, not because they love spreadsheets. And when you’re in survival mode, juggling clients, cash flow and everything else, planning feels like a luxury you can’t afford. But that’s precisely when the absence of a plan hurts the most.

This isn’t just a small business problem. In large organizations, long-term planning often gets reduced to a finance exercise, something done because the numbers are due. But the people who get the most out of it treat it as something else entirely: a moment to step back and ask whether the business is actually heading where they want it to go.

Start Small, Think Forward

So what does this actually look like in practice? Let’s go back to those three questions.

Where do you want to be in three years? Start with a number. Not a precise forecast, just an honest ambition, a revenue goal that feels stretching but reachable. Then work backwards from it. Ask what needs to be true to get there. More clients? A higher price point? A new service line? Even a rough answer turns a target into a direction. And once you have that, also look at your margins. They will tell you which parts of your business are actually worth growing. Growing the wrong part can make you busier without making you better off.

What needs to happen to get there? This is where it gets practical. Do you need to hire someone? Invest in new equipment or technology? Win a certain type of client you don’t have yet? You don’t need all the answers, but naming the two or three things that would move the needle most is enormously clarifying. It also helps to think about your hiring or investment trigger: at what point would you need another person, or a meaningful investment? Deciding this in advance means you’re ready when the moment comes rather than scrambling to figure it out under pressure.

What might get in the way? Think about your biggest dependency, a key client, a supplier, a person on your team. What happens if that changes? You don’t need a contingency plan for everything, just enough awareness to not be caught completely off guard. If you haven't done it recently, set aside 20 minutes to map out four simple things: what you're good at, where you're weak, what opportunities you see, and what threatens you. It's a classic exercise called a SWOT analysis, and it sounds basic because it is. That's also why it works.

None of this requires a thick document or a consultant. A revenue goal, a rough sense of what you need to get there, and one or two risks you’re keeping an eye on. An hour of honest thinking, written down somewhere you’ll actually look at it, is genuinely enough to start.

The Best Time to Start Is Now

Remember that business owner from the beginning, busy, successful, but with no clear view of what next year looks like? Most of us recognise that feeling in some form, whether we run a business, lead a team, or are just starting out in our careers.

You don’t need a perfect plan. You don’t always need a consultant or a finance team. Often you just need an honest hour, a few questions worth asking, and the willingness to write something down.

Planning isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about making sure that when the future arrives, with its opportunities and its surprises, you’re ready to meet it on your own terms rather than scrambling to catch up.

That’s something anyone can do. Starting this week.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay